Original data analysis · Published October 16, 2026
280 federal service awards classified as competed recorded just one offer in this FY2025 comparison. That was 12.5% of the 2,233 competed purchase orders and standalone contracts we examined across janitorial services, landscaping and plumbing/HVAC contractors.
The highest share was plumbing/HVAC: 192 of 1,142 competed awards, or 16.8%. These are completed awards with reported offers, not live bidding opportunities. The result shows that a competition label and a crowded field of bidders are different things.
Three services, different competitive fields
| Industry / NAICS | All original domestic awards in scope | Competed | Known offer counts | Missing / nonpositive counts | One offer | Single-offer share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janitorial services (561720) | 790 | 545 | 545 | 0 | 41 | 7.5% |
| Landscaping services (561730) | 689 | 546 | 546 | 0 | 47 | 8.6% |
| Plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors (238220) | 1,872 | 1,142 | 1,142 | 0 | 192 | 16.8% |
The final matched sample had no missing or nonpositive offer counts among its competed records. We show that column because an unknown count must not be treated as zero offers or as evidence of a single bidder. The broader download contained orders with missing fields; those orders are outside this study’s design.
One offer is not the usual outcome in this sample
| Reported offers | Awards | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 280 | 12.5% |
| 2–4 | 716 | 32.1% |
| 5–9 | 614 | 27.5% |
| 10+ | 623 | 27.9% |
Most records show more than one offer. A single-offer result alone cannot identify its cause: specialized requirements, eligibility limits, timing and local capacity all need investigation at the solicitation level. The dataset does not establish easy access, improper purchasing or a new vendor’s probability of winning.
Where the awards were performed
The table below pools the three selected industries and shows states with at least 20 competed awards with known offer counts. The threshold limits very small denominators; it is not a statistical guarantee. Differences in the mix of services can change the state percentages.
| State / D.C. | Competed, known offers | One offer | Single-offer share |
|---|---|---|---|
| IN | 30 | 10 | 33.3% |
| OR | 51 | 12 | 23.5% |
| MD | 57 | 13 | 22.8% |
| NJ | 22 | 5 | 22.7% |
| FL | 84 | 19 | 22.6% |
| WV | 28 | 6 | 21.4% |
| TN | 35 | 7 | 20.0% |
| WI | 36 | 7 | 19.4% |
| AL | 21 | 4 | 19.0% |
| NC | 37 | 7 | 18.9% |
| AK | 38 | 7 | 18.4% |
| DC | 39 | 7 | 17.9% |
| MT | 40 | 7 | 17.5% |
| IL | 41 | 7 | 17.1% |
| SC | 37 | 6 | 16.2% |
| MI | 33 | 5 | 15.2% |
| OK | 43 | 6 | 14.0% |
| SD | 36 | 5 | 13.9% |
| PA | 58 | 8 | 13.8% |
| AR | 52 | 7 | 13.5% |
| AZ | 62 | 8 | 12.9% |
| LA | 39 | 5 | 12.8% |
| MS | 48 | 6 | 12.5% |
| NY | 79 | 9 | 11.4% |
| MO | 48 | 5 | 10.4% |
| VA | 77 | 8 | 10.4% |
| GA | 59 | 6 | 10.2% |
| MN | 30 | 3 | 10.0% |
| CO | 52 | 5 | 9.6% |
| KS | 34 | 3 | 8.8% |
| HI | 23 | 2 | 8.7% |
| MA | 70 | 6 | 8.6% |
| NM | 47 | 4 | 8.5% |
| WY | 24 | 2 | 8.3% |
| TX | 172 | 14 | 8.1% |
| OH | 51 | 4 | 7.8% |
| WA | 59 | 4 | 6.8% |
| CA | 179 | 11 | 6.1% |
| ID | 39 | 2 | 5.1% |
| IA | 24 | 1 | 4.2% |
| NE | 25 | 1 | 4.0% |
| CT | 37 | 1 | 2.7% |
Use the history to prepare, then read the actual opportunity
Choose opportunities that match your capacity and eligibility, then read the current scope, site-visit dates, evaluation criteria and insurance schedule. Our government cleaning bid guide covers that sequence.
A recorded one-offer award is a starting point for research into the buying agency and service requirement. It is not an open lead, and the historical award may be completed, renewed under different terms or covered by a new solicitation.
Source, exclusions and reproducible method
Source: USAspending contract data and dictionary, public transaction downloads extracted October 16, 2026. API documentation: USAspending endpoints. The FPDS data dictionary explains competition and offer fields, including propagation from parent vehicles.
We select NAICS 561720, 561730 and 238220; action dates October 1, 2024–September 30, 2025; modification number 0; award types B and D (purchase orders and definitive contracts); and a U.S. place of performance in the 50 states or D.C. The 3,351 retained records have unique award keys. We exclude task/delivery orders and BPA calls because competition and offer fields can refer to a parent vehicle, as well as later modifications, non-U.S. work and territories.
Competed means one of three explicit extent-competed categories: full/open competition, full/open after excluding sources, or competed under simplified acquisition procedures. The denominator is those records with a strictly positive integer offer count. Single-offer share = count with one offer ÷ count with known positive offers. The competed denominator contains 1,745 purchase orders and 488 definitive contracts.
This is an award-count comparison, not a share of dollars, a count of all solicitations or a measure of unsuccessful procurement attempts. It does not cover every service industry. Agency corrections after extraction can change historical records. We preserve the downloaded files, selected record keys and calculations locally; no contractor personal data is published.
Cite this study
StartBusinessByState.com. “The Government Sought Competition. One Offer Came Back.” Published October 16, 2026. https://startbusinessbystate.com/single-bid-service-contracts/.
Our original analysis and graphic are available under CC BY 4.0. Credit this study and link to this page when reusing them. Underlying source materials retain their own terms and remain available from the original agencies. This permission applies to our original analysis and graphic, not to the source publications.
Embed the chart with a credit link
<figure><a href="https://startbusinessbystate.com/single-bid-service-contracts/"><img src="https://startbusinessbystate.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/single-bid-service-contracts.png" alt="The Government Sought Competition. One Offer Came Back." style="max-width:100%;height:auto"></a><figcaption>Source: <a href="https://startbusinessbystate.com/single-bid-service-contracts/">StartBusinessByState.com</a></figcaption></figure>