By StartBusinessByStatePublisher: Robert SmithResearch process
U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps were up 11.4% in August 2026 compared with August 2025, according to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), the manufacturers’ trade group. It was the seventh month in a row that combined shipments beat the same month a year earlier.
The rebound follows a weak 2025. Full-year 2025 shipments fell 20.0%, from 9,681,770 units in 2024 to 7,749,529. So far, 2026 has made back only part of that: shipments from January through August were 6,390,257, up 6.2% from 2025 but still 5.1% below the same months of 2024.
More installs also mean more jobs where something can go wrong, so it’s worth reviewing your HVAC business insurance as volume picks up; shops in hot-weather markets can also check the rules for HVAC insurance in Arizona.
The numbers
- August 2026: 756,739 central air conditioners and heat pumps shipped, up 11.4%. Air conditioners alone rose 17.2% to 418,323. Heat pumps rose 5.0% to 338,416.
- January to August 2026: 3,481,613 air conditioners (+6.5%) and 2,908,644 heat pumps (+5.7%).
- Gas furnaces: down 4.3% in August, to 287,710, and down 5.0% for the year so far, to 2,106,454.
- Water heaters: residential gas storage water heaters were down 2.4% for the year so far and electric ones down 4.8%.
Month by month in 2026
| Month | AC + heat pumps, 2026 | Same month 2025 | Change | Heat pump share, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 440,819 | 622,901 | -29.2% | 52% |
| February | 638,841 | 636,302 | +0.4% | 49% |
| March | 856,674 | 818,761 | +4.6% | 49% |
| April | 837,098 | 796,279 | +5.1% | 46% |
| May | 919,685 | 862,129 | +6.7% | 43% |
| June | 1,023,571 | 840,769 | +21.7% | 41% |
| July | 916,830 | 763,443 | +20.1% | 45% |
| August | 756,739 | 679,378 | +11.4% | 45% |
January was the only down month, falling 29.2%. June and July had the biggest gains, at 21.7% and 20.1%.
Heat pumps versus air conditioners and furnaces
Air conditioners still outsell heat pumps, but the gap has narrowed over the last few years. Heat pumps made up 41.8% of combined shipments in 2023, 42.6% in 2024 and 47.0% in 2025. So far in 2026 they are 45.5%, because air conditioner shipments have bounced back a bit faster.
Heat pumps already outsell gas furnaces. In 2025, manufacturers shipped 3,644,596 air-source heat pumps and 3,247,426 gas furnaces. From January through August 2026, it was 2,908,644 heat pumps and 2,106,454 gas furnaces. Furnaces sell more in the fall, so this gap usually narrows late in the year.
What happened in 2025
2025 was the first year of a federal refrigerant rule. Under the EPA’s Technology Transitions rule, new home and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems made or imported from January 1, 2025 must use a refrigerant with a global warming potential under 700. In practice that meant moving from R-410A to newer refrigerants such as R-454B and R-32.
The rule first set a January 1, 2026 deadline to install older R-410A systems built before 2025. In a final rule published May 26, 2026, the EPA removed that deadline, so older equipment made before 2025 can still be installed until it runs out.
The timing lines up with the 2025 drop, but AHRI’s data does not explain why shipments rose or fell. Housing starts, weather, interest rates, prices and dealer inventory all affect how many units ship. AHRI itself says it does not discuss market trends, so we are not putting a single cause on it.
What it means for HVAC businesses
- Know which refrigerant you are installing. New systems mostly use R-454B or R-32, which are mildly flammable (A2L) refrigerants. Technicians need the right tools, training and handling practices, and local codes may have their own rules.
- Plan for equipment prices. Shipment counts do not show price, so a shop should track its own supplier quotes. Our page on HVAC tariff scenarios covers one source of price pressure.
- Heat pump work keeps growing. Nearly half of new central systems shipped are heat pumps. Rebates differ a lot by state; see heat pump rebates by state.
- Maintenance revenue smooths the swings. Equipment sales go up and down with these cycles. Service agreements do not as much; see how to price an HVAC maintenance agreement.
Thinking of starting your own shop? Start with our guide to starting an HVAC business and the contractor license requirements by state.
What the data does and does not show
- A shipment is when a manufacturer transfers ownership of a unit, for example to a distributor. It is not an installation, so units can sit in warehouses.
- The figures come from AHRI member companies that take part in its statistics program. AHRI does not say exactly what share of the market that covers.
- Shipments cover the 50 states and DC, including imports. AHRI does not publish data by state.
- Numbers can be revised in later releases.
Sources
AHRI monthly statistical releases for December 2025 and January through August 2026 (August released October 9, 2026). EPA Technology Transitions rule, 40 CFR 84.54, and the EPA final rule published in the Federal Register May 26, 2026. Data courtesy of AHRI. September data is expected around mid-November.