Winter heating tracker · EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update + EIA spot prices + Census ACS · Last updated October 6, 2026
Data through: EIA retail prices for the 2025-26 season (last survey week March 30, 2026); the new season’s survey starts in October. Wholesale spot prices through September 25, 2026. Households: Census ACS 2024.
Heating oil is headed into winter far more expensive than last year, and propane somewhat more. 4.7 million U.S. households heat with fuel oil or kerosene and 6.2 million with propane (Census, 2024). Last winter (2025-26), U.S. residential heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon, +10.1% from the winter before, and ended March at $5.54. Propane averaged $2.55. EIA starts its new weekly price survey in October, so until then we show last winter plus a clearly labeled estimate based on wholesale prices.
Key findings
- Wholesale heating oil is up 109% from a year ago. New York Harbor No. 2 heating oil: $4.75 a gallon (Sep 25, 2026) vs. $2.27 (Sep 26, 2025). EIA series EER_EPD2F_PF4_Y35NY_DPG.
- Wholesale propane is up 26%. Mont Belvieu, Texas: $0.88 vs. $0.70 a year earlier. EIA series EER_EPLLPA_PF4_Y44MB_DPG.
- Home heating oil could open the season near $6.30 a gallon. That’s today’s wholesale price plus last winter’s average retail markup ($1.55). Using last winter’s smallest and largest weekly markups gives a range of $6.06 to $6.62. Last October started at $3.56. Modeled
- Last winter, heating oil averaged $4.01 a gallon. That’s +10.1% from $3.64 in 2024-25. It ended March 2026 at $5.54. Propane averaged $2.55 (−1.1%).
- Maine relies on heating oil more than any state. 50.3% of households, followed by New Hampshire (37.0%), Vermont (35.5%) and Connecticut (35.0%). Propane shares are highest in New Hampshire (20.4%), Vermont (19.8%) and Maine (16.0%).
- $274 more per 100 gallons. That’s the gap between the modeled opening heating oil price and last October’s. A home that burns 500 gallons a winter would pay about $1,372 more at that price. Modeled
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Wholesale prices are the early warning
Your heating oil dealer pays something close to the New York Harbor price, then adds delivery, overhead and profit. Last winter that markup averaged $1.55 a gallon nationally. It was $1.91 for propane over the Mont Belvieu price. Wholesale prices move first, and retail follows a few weeks later.
Heating oil and propane, every state
Click a column header to sort. EIA surveys heating oil prices in 21 states and propane in 38, mostly where those fuels are common. Where EIA has no state price, we show the regional average and mark it “regional.” West Coast states aren’t surveyed. Household counts cover every state.
| State | Homes heating with oil | Number of homes | Heating oil, 2025-26 avg. | Heating oil: Estimated opening price Modeled | Homes heating with propane | Number of homes | Propane, 2025-26 avg. | Propane: Estimated opening price Modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3.5% | 4,654,835 | $4.01 | $6.30 | 4.7% | 6,183,787 | $2.55 | $2.79 |
| Alabama | 0.1% | 2,539 | n/a | n/a | 4.9% | 101,908 | $3.46 | $3.70 |
| Alaska | 27.5% | 75,381 | n/a | n/a | 2.1% | 5,741 | n/a | n/a |
| Arizona | 0.1% | 3,845 | n/a | n/a | 2.6% | 78,086 | n/a | n/a |
| Arkansas | 0.1% | 1,487 | n/a | n/a | 5.9% | 73,185 | $2.34 | $2.58 |
| California | 0.2% | 31,733 | n/a | n/a | 2.9% | 401,981 | n/a | n/a |
| Colorado | 0.2% | 4,758 | n/a | n/a | 4.5% | 111,675 | $2.22 | $2.46 |
| Connecticut | 35.0% | 509,593 | $3.95 | $6.24 | 5.7% | 82,630 | $3.83 | $4.07 |
| Delaware | 6.8% | 27,950 | $4.43 | $6.72 | 10.4% | 42,927 | $3.57 | $3.81 |
| District of Columbia | 0.8% | 2,569 | $4.11 regional | $6.39 | 1.0% | 3,366 | $3.35 regional | $3.59 |
| Florida | 0.2% | 19,198 | $3.74 regional | $6.02 | 0.9% | 78,695 | $4.67 | $4.90 |
| Georgia | 0.2% | 6,889 | $3.74 regional | $6.02 | 3.6% | 152,827 | $3.08 | $3.31 |
| Hawaii | 0.1% | 609 | n/a | n/a | 2.0% | 9,930 | n/a | n/a |
| Idaho | 0.9% | 6,592 | n/a | n/a | 5.2% | 38,761 | $2.36 | $2.60 |
| Illinois | 0.1% | 6,543 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 3.8% | 192,729 | $1.91 | $2.14 |
| Indiana | 0.4% | 10,796 | $3.53 | $5.82 | 6.6% | 182,600 | $2.47 | $2.71 |
| Iowa | 0.3% | 4,069 | $3.21 | $5.50 | 12.3% | 165,804 | $1.59 | $1.83 |
| Kansas | 0.2% | 2,003 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 7.9% | 95,164 | $1.90 | $2.14 |
| Kentucky | 0.6% | 11,903 | $3.28 | $5.57 | 6.6% | 122,223 | $2.67 | $2.91 |
| Louisiana | 0.1% | 1,063 | n/a | n/a | 2.0% | 36,073 | $2.89 regional | $3.12 |
| Maine | 50.3% | 309,159 | $3.73 | $6.01 | 16.0% | 98,171 | $3.29 | $3.53 |
| Maryland | 5.8% | 140,292 | $4.04 | $6.33 | 3.7% | 88,740 | $3.58 | $3.82 |
| Massachusetts | 20.2% | 572,376 | $4.12 | $6.41 | 4.4% | 124,926 | $3.41 | $3.65 |
| Michigan | 0.8% | 31,780 | $3.38 | $5.67 | 8.7% | 361,091 | $2.26 | $2.50 |
| Minnesota | 1.2% | 28,342 | $3.63 | $5.91 | 10.4% | 246,243 | $1.95 | $2.19 |
| Mississippi | 0.1% | 803 | n/a | n/a | 9.8% | 115,164 | $3.02 | $3.26 |
| Missouri | 0.1% | 3,818 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 8.5% | 217,087 | $2.10 | $2.33 |
| Montana | 0.6% | 2,759 | n/a | n/a | 13.7% | 64,068 | $2.02 | $2.26 |
| Nebraska | 0.3% | 2,401 | $2.92 | $5.21 | 7.4% | 61,029 | $1.61 | $1.84 |
| Nevada | 0.3% | 3,977 | n/a | n/a | 2.7% | 33,069 | n/a | n/a |
| New Hampshire | 37.0% | 211,416 | $3.90 | $6.18 | 20.4% | 116,162 | $3.58 | $3.82 |
| New Jersey | 5.6% | 198,050 | $4.30 | $6.59 | 1.9% | 66,233 | $3.63 | $3.87 |
| New Mexico | 0.1% | 752 | n/a | n/a | 6.5% | 55,492 | $2.89 regional | $3.12 |
| New York | 14.6% | 1,143,783 | $4.29 | $6.58 | 4.7% | 370,910 | $3.53 | $3.77 |
| North Carolina | 1.6% | 71,202 | $3.55 | $5.84 | 5.4% | 241,847 | $3.36 | $3.60 |
| North Dakota | 2.0% | 6,836 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 13.6% | 47,594 | $1.63 | $1.87 |
| Ohio | 1.5% | 74,397 | $3.74 | $6.02 | 5.4% | 266,858 | $2.58 | $2.82 |
| Oklahoma | 0.2% | 3,020 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 6.2% | 99,692 | $2.22 | $2.46 |
| Oregon | 1.2% | 21,132 | n/a | n/a | 1.4% | 24,404 | n/a | n/a |
| Pennsylvania | 12.8% | 685,083 | $3.73 | $6.02 | 5.2% | 276,598 | $2.93 | $3.17 |
| Rhode Island | 25.4% | 113,718 | $4.11 | $6.40 | 4.9% | 21,922 | $3.63 | $3.87 |
| South Carolina | 0.4% | 8,607 | $3.74 regional | $6.02 | 3.2% | 71,949 | $3.42 regional | $3.66 |
| South Dakota | 0.9% | 3,555 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 15.7% | 60,144 | $1.79 | $2.03 |
| Tennessee | 0.2% | 7,309 | $3.53 regional | $5.82 | 3.3% | 96,679 | $3.15 | $3.38 |
| Texas | 0.1% | 11,826 | n/a | n/a | 2.7% | 304,101 | $2.94 | $3.18 |
| Utah | 0.1% | 1,579 | n/a | n/a | 2.5% | 29,586 | $2.29 | $2.53 |
| Vermont | 35.5% | 101,281 | $3.91 | $6.20 | 19.8% | 56,523 | $3.69 | $3.92 |
| Virginia | 2.7% | 94,685 | $3.88 | $6.17 | 4.3% | 147,964 | $3.46 | $3.70 |
| Washington | 0.9% | 28,968 | n/a | n/a | 2.6% | 82,604 | n/a | n/a |
| West Virginia | 1.8% | 13,191 | $3.74 regional | $6.02 | 5.0% | 37,246 | $3.42 regional | $3.66 |
| Wisconsin | 1.1% | 29,072 | $3.31 | $5.60 | 11.7% | 297,009 | $1.91 | $2.15 |
| Wyoming | 0.1% | 146 | n/a | n/a | 10.3% | 26,377 | $2.19 regional | $2.43 |
“Homes heating with oil” = fuel oil, kerosene, etc., as the main house heating fuel; “propane” = bottled, tank or LP gas (Census ACS 2024 1-year, table B25040). Prices are EIA residential prices per gallon including taxes. 2025-26 average = all weekly prices October 2025 through March 2026.
Download the data (CSV)
What it means for your business
Price the full cost of taking on the work. Heating contractors can review HVAC contractor insurance and coverage options; mobile food operators can compare food truck insurance. For equipment purchases or seasonal operating cash, our business financing comparison separates the options by business stage and use of funds.
- HVAC. Expensive heating oil drives calls about heat pumps and conversions, especially in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, where a third or more of homes in some states still burn oil. Have a clear quote ready that shows the customer their current oil bill next to a heat pump’s running cost. Fall tune-ups for oil burners sell themselves this year, so build them into your maintenance agreements. State-by-state startup guides are linked from the state names in the table.
- Food trucks. Most food trucks cook on propane. Cylinder exchange costs more per gallon than the home delivery prices here, but it follows the same wholesale market. If you go through 20 gallons a week, every $1 a gallon adds about $20 a week. Our food truck event profit calculator lets you add that in.
- Daycares, cleaning companies and small shops. If your space heats with oil or propane, lock in a price or a budget plan with your dealer before the cold sets in. Many dealers offer fixed or capped prices in the fall. A daycare that burns 1,500 gallons a winter feels every 50-cent move as $750.
- Landscapers. Winter work like snow removal runs on diesel, which tracks heating oil closely. Plan winter cash flow with the landscaping seasonal cash flow calculator.
Electricity costs are rising too. See business electricity cost increases by state. For diesel, which moves with heating oil, see diesel and gas prices by state.
Prepare your HVAC business for the next service call
Review HVAC insurance options for your services, equipment and crew. The guide explains the main coverages and how to prepare a quote request that describes your actual work.
How we did this
- Retail prices. EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update, EIA Open Data API v2, route petroleum/pri/wfr, process PRS (residential), products EPD2F (No. 2 heating oil) and EPLLPA (propane). Series follow the pattern W_EPD2F_PRS_S[state]_DPG and W_EPLLPA_PRS_S[state]_DPG. Weekly, October through March. Last full season: 2025-26, through the week of March 30, 2026.
- Wholesale prices. EIA spot prices, route petroleum/pri/spt, weekly: EER_EPD2F_PF4_Y35NY_DPG (New York Harbor No. 2 heating oil) and EER_EPLLPA_PF4_Y44MB_DPG (Mont Belvieu, Texas propane), week ending September 25, 2026 vs. the week ending September 26, 2025.
- Households. Census Bureau ACS 2024 1-year estimates, table B25040 (house heating fuel): B25040_005E fuel oil, kerosene, etc.; B25040_003E bottled, tank or LP gas; B25040_001E all occupied housing units.
- Regional fallback. States without an EIA state price use the PADD region price where EIA publishes one, labeled “regional.”
Caveats
- EIA lists a District of Columbia heating oil series but has published no values for it recently, so DC uses the Central Atlantic regional price.
- EIA’s state coverage is limited to states where these fuels are common. Neighboring states may differ a lot from the regional average.
- Prices are for residential delivery. Commercial accounts and cylinder exchange prices differ.
- ACS counts the main heating fuel only. Homes that use oil or propane as backup aren’t counted.
EIA and Census data are public domain. This page has no ads or affiliate links. Cite as: StartBusinessByState, “Heating Oil and Propane Prices by State,” updated October 6, 2026, https://startbusinessbystate.com/heating-oil-propane-prices-by-state/
Related research
- Diesel and gas prices by state: weekly EIA prices.
- The diesel shock bill by state.
- HVAC industry statistics and the best states to start an HVAC business.
- HVAC equipment tariff scenarios.
- Small businesses paying higher prices, by state.
- electric heat and winter electric bills by state: share of homes heated with electricity and last winter’s bills.
FAQ
How much is heating oil right now?
EIA’s weekly retail survey restarts in October. Last winter ended at $5.54 a gallon (week of Mar 30, 2026). Wholesale heating oil in New York Harbor was $4.75 on Sep 25, 2026, which at last winter’s markup points to about $6.30 retail. That is our estimate, not an EIA figure.
Why is heating oil so expensive this year?
Heating oil is almost the same fuel as diesel, so it rises and falls with diesel. Diesel supplies have been tight since the Iran war began in late February 2026, and U.S. diesel set a record weekly average in September.
Which states use the most heating oil?
By share of households: Maine (50.3%), New Hampshire (37.0%), Vermont (35.5%) and Connecticut (35.0%), from the Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey. By number of households, New York is largest.
Is propane going up too?
Yes, but less than heating oil. Wholesale propane at Mont Belvieu was $0.88 a gallon on Sep 25, 2026, up 26% from a year earlier. Retail propane averaged $2.55 last winter.
Does a fuel tax holiday lower heating oil prices?
Usually not. Heating oil used in a home is normally exempt from road fuel taxes, so state gas tax holidays don’t change it. See our fuel tax holiday tracker for which states have cut taxes.
When does this page update?
Every Wednesday from October through March, after EIA publishes its weekly heating oil and propane prices. Between April and September, we update the wholesale prices monthly.
Last updated October 6, 2026. Retail prices: 2025-26 season. Wholesale prices through September 25, 2026.