Rate Hikes and Small-Business Loans: State & Industry Data

By StartBusinessByStatePublisher: Robert SmithResearch process

81.8% of 21,548 SBA 7(a) approvals in six service-industry groups were recorded as variable-rate loans in our FY2021–FY2025 analysis. Cleaning had the highest share, at 88.5%; mobile food services had the lowest, at 70.5%. These historical approvals show how financing was structured—not how much debt remains outstanding today.

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 0.25 percentage point on September 16, 2026. To put a change of that size in context, a hypothetical $100,000 loan amortized over 10 years would cost $13.88 more per month at 10.25% instead of 10%. Actual loan resets depend on the contract, benchmark, balance and remaining term.

Published September 18, 2026 · Last updated October 8, 2026 · Census BTOS through responses collected Sep 21–Oct 4, 2026 · SBA file as of June 30, 2026 · Approval years FY2021–FY2025 · Geography: 50 states + DC. Rates of 10% and 10.25% below are explicit scenario assumptions, not current lender quotes or the federal funds rate.

81.8%Recorded variable-rate share
21,548Non-cancelled approvals studied
$13.88Modeled monthly increase per $100,000*

*10% → 10.25%, 120 equal monthly payments, unchanged principal, no fees.

Three findings reporters can use

  1. Variable-rate lending predominated in every industry group studied. Shares ranged from 70.5% to 88.5%, using all in-scope approvals as the denominator.
  2. Cleaning had the highest variable-rate share, but daycare had the largest median loan. Daycare’s $440,000 median approved amount produced a modeled $61.08 monthly increase; mobile food’s $50,000 median produced $6.94 under the same assumptions.
  3. Loan size and rate structure answer different questions. A high variable-rate share does not automatically imply the largest dollar increase. The modeled daycare increment is 8.8 times mobile food’s because its median approved amount is 8.8 times larger—not because daycare borrowers receive a different assumed rate.

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Use its rate, term and payment schedule alongside these scenarios. The business-loan guide helps compare the financing types and costs.

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Variable-rate lending and loan sizes by industry

The table combines observed approval data with a separate repayment scenario. Loan-size medians include fixed, variable and unclassified approvals. They serve as illustrative principal amounts, not estimates of current balances or actual borrower payments.

IndustryApprovalsVariable-rate shareMedian approved amountModeled monthly increase*
Janitorial / cleaning2,24088.5%$144,500$20.06
Plumbing & HVAC4,58884.3%$150,000$20.82
Landscaping4,50581.4%$100,000$13.88
Barber, beauty & nail salons5,44180.8%$85,000$11.80
Child day care3,73779.7%$440,000$61.08
Mobile food services1,03770.5%$50,000$6.94

*At each industry’s median amount: 10% → 10.25%, 10-year amortization. Plumbing/HVAC is the combined NAICS 238220 industry; mobile food is NAICS 722330, broader than a single food-truck format.

Recorded variable-rate approval shares: cleaning 88.5%, plumbing and HVAC 84.3%, landscaping 81.4%, personal care 80.8%, daycare 79.7%, mobile food 70.5%.
Observed historical financing structure. Source: SBA; analysis by StartBusinessByState.com.

For complementary loan-size, lender and reported-jobs analysis, see SBA loans, jobs and lenders by industry and state. Those metrics do not establish current rate exposure either.

State comparisons: filter by industry

Compare all six industry groups together or select one. Each displayed cell requires at least 30 approvals. State figures describe the loans in this sample; they are not state interest rates. Different industry, lender and loan-size mixes can affect comparisons. The complete CSV retains smaller cells, identified by a publication-threshold flag.

State/DC cells with at least 30 approvals.

State / DCApprovalsVariable-rate shareMedian approved amountModeled monthly increase*
Alabama13889.1%$150,000$20.82
Alaska3479.4%$169,200$23.49
Arizona43983.4%$250,000$34.71
Arkansas11175.7%$140,300$19.48
California1,74877.1%$150,000$20.82
Colorado58080.9%$200,000$27.77
Connecticut34482.8%$90,050$12.50
Delaware8590.6%$60,000$8.33
District of Columbia4092.5%$101,350$14.07
Florida1,67289.7%$202,100$28.06
Georgia59791.6%$286,000$39.70
Hawaii6354.0%$50,000$6.94
Idaho20786.5%$100,000$13.88
Illinois74279.5%$150,000$20.82
Indiana45085.6%$113,500$15.76
Iowa14264.8%$120,000$16.66
Kansas16259.9%$150,000$20.82
Kentucky19466.5%$108,250$15.03
Louisiana14883.8%$150,000$20.82
Maine13053.1%$66,550$9.24
Maryland41091.7%$100,000$13.88
Massachusetts77956.7%$75,000$10.41
Michigan86388.5%$86,000$11.94
Minnesota59069.0%$125,000$17.35
Mississippi9174.7%$126,000$17.49
Missouri35970.8%$150,000$20.82
Montana8368.7%$149,500$20.75
Nebraska14267.6%$180,000$24.99
Nevada23075.2%$108,500$15.06
New Hampshire25762.6%$58,800$8.16
New Jersey84590.7%$150,000$20.82
New Mexico7467.6%$127,300$17.67
New York1,23186.8%$80,000$11.11
North Carolina47787.0%$250,000$34.71
North Dakota6352.4%$110,000$15.27
Ohio1,47988.5%$60,000$8.33
Oklahoma17774.6%$162,000$22.49
Oregon28874.0%$50,000$6.94
Pennsylvania96591.3%$100,000$13.88
Rhode Island9676.0%$100,000$13.88
South Carolina24990.8%$168,000$23.32
South Dakota4839.6%$96,850$13.45
Tennessee25982.2%$171,900$23.86
Texas1,62286.7%$276,000$38.32
Utah35789.1%$150,000$20.82
Vermont6959.4%$35,000$4.86
Virginia35786.0%$150,000$20.82
Washington52580.4%$138,400$19.21
West Virginia8083.8%$77,500$10.76
Wisconsin43265.3%$150,000$20.82

*10% → 10.25%, 120 months, at the selected cell’s median approved amount. National figures are calculated from individual approval records, not averages of state medians or percentages.

Ten highest variable-rate shares across the six-industry sample, restricted to states with at least 100 approvals; full state figures and counts are in the table and CSV.
This chart uses a stricter minimum of 100 approvals to avoid highlighting very small samples. It is not a ranking of actual rate increases or current financial distress.

What would a rate change do to a monthly loan payment?

Use the same principal and repayment period on both sides. For an existing amortizing loan, enter its remaining balance and remaining term, then check whether its contract actually reprices. This model assumes the payment is recalculated at the new rate. It does not model revolving credit, interest-only periods, balloons or lender-specific adjustments.

Fixed examples: 10% versus 10.25% over 10 years

PrincipalAt 10%At 10.25%Monthly difference
$25,000$330.38$333.85$3.47
$50,000$660.75$667.70$6.94
$100,000$1,321.51$1,335.39$13.88
$250,000$3,303.77$3,338.48$34.71
$500,000$6,607.54$6,676.95$69.41
$1,000,000$13,215.07$13,353.90$138.83

What this study does—and does not—say about the Fed decision

For a separate operating-budget check, compare requested versus approved employee health insurance increases. That tracker measures insurance rate decisions and models employer contributions; it does not attribute health premiums to the Fed decision.

The September 16 decision moved the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. That target is not the rate a small business is quoted. Our 10% baseline is chosen to make the comparison transparent; it is not derived from a current lender offer. A 0.25-point increase in a borrower’s rate is a scenario, not an automatic consequence for every loan.

What the hike did to the prime rate and SBA rate caps

Most variable small-business loans start from the prime rate. After the September 16 hike, the bank prime loan rate was 7.00% on every business day from September 24 to September 30, 2026, according to the Federal Reserve H.15 release dated October 1, 2026.

The SBA caps variable 7(a) rates at a base rate, such as prime, plus a spread that depends on loan size (SBA lender terms page). With prime at 7.00%, the caps work out as follows:

Loan amountSBA maximum spreadMaximum variable rate at 7.00% prime
$50,000 or lessPrime + 6.513.50%
$50,001 to $250,000Prime + 6.013.00%
$250,001 to $350,000Prime + 4.511.50%
More than $350,000Prime + 3.010.00%

These are the highest rates a lender may charge, not typical rates. Your own rate depends on your loan agreement. Our 10% to 10.25% example is a round number for comparison; it is not a forecast and does not change with these caps.

The SBA explains that fixed-rate payments stay the same, while variable-rate loans may require a different payment when the rate changes. A fixed-rate loan generally does not reset simply because the Fed changes policy. For a variable-rate loan, the agreement’s benchmark, spread, adjustment date, caps and repayment structure matter. This study does not reconstruct those terms. The SBA rate-type field describes a record in this extract, not a live servicing account.

Our sample includes approved loans with different later statuses, including commitments, paid-in-full and charged-off records. It therefore cannot be used to total a new nationwide interest bill, estimate outstanding debt, or count businesses currently facing higher payments. Multiple approvals can also belong to the same business.

For broader context, use our SBA lending statistics and small-business credit-access research. Before financing a hiring plan, compare collections and expenses with the cleaning-business hiring cash calculator; borrowing does not resolve an ongoing operating loss.

How many businesses say interest rates are hurting them, by state

33.2% of U.S. employer businesses said changes in interest rates hurt them in the last six months, up from 29.8% a year earlier and the highest share since the survey period that ended October 6, 2024. In the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey responses collected September 21–October 4, 2026, 28.5% said rates cut their profits and 9.5% said rates kept them from investing in the business.

33.2%reported any negative impact from interest rates (up from 26.0% in early 2026)
28.5%said rates decreased their profitability, the highest since September 2024
7.00%bank prime loan rate on October 2, 2026, the base for most variable small-business loans

The loan analysis above shows how many SBA borrowers in six service industries took variable-rate loans. This survey asks a different question: whether owners say rates have already hurt the business. It covers employer businesses of all kinds, borrowers and non-borrowers alike, in every state.

Line chart of the share of U.S. employer businesses reporting negative impacts from interest rates since September 2023, with the prime rate below. Latest: 33.2% any negative impact, 28.5% decreased profitability; prime rate 7.00%.
Share of employer businesses reporting each impact, two-week survey periods, with the bank prime loan rate. Source: Census BTOS; Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED.

When Census first asked, in fall 2023, 38.4% of businesses reported a negative impact. The share drifted down as the prime rate came down from 8.50%, reached 26.0% in the period ending February 22, 2026, and has risen in 11 of the 16 periods since. The prime rate did not change for most of that climb: it held at 6.75% from the low point until the September 2026 hike, then rose to 7.00%. Few businesses report the most serious problems: 4.5% said they could not keep up with debt payments and 4.6% said they could not refinance.

Timing matters. The latest responses were collected September 21–October 4, 2026, entirely after the Fed’s September 16 increase. The previous period (September 7–20, 2026) straddled it. Because the question asks about the last six months, answers still reflect conditions from before the hike as well. Census publishes new results every two weeks; the next release, on October 22, 2026, covers responses collected October 5–18, 2026.

Census draws a new sample of businesses each summer, and the share reporting harm jumped when the 2025 and 2026 samples started (July 14, 2025 and July 27, 2026). Part of any change across those dates may come from the new sample rather than from businesses’ experience, so compare readings within the same sample year when you can. Census did not collect data during the fall 2025 federal shutdown, so three two-week periods are missing.

State results

Single two-week state estimates swing a lot, so the table averages the last 6 survey periods (July 13–October 4, 2026). Utah (35.4%), Oregon (34.6%) and Washington (34.1%) had the highest shares of businesses reporting harm; the District of Columbia had the lowest (22.9%). The U.S. average over the same periods was 31.0%. Margins of error run from about ±0.7 points in the largest states to ±4.5 in the smallest, so small gaps between states are not meaningful. Click a column header to sort.

RankStateAny negative impact, 6-period avg.Decreased profitabilityCould not investAny impact, latest period
United States31.0% ±0.326.3%8.8%33.2%
1Utah35.4% ±2.329.4% ±2.19.5%34.6%
2Oregon34.6% ±1.631.1% ±1.69.4%35.3%
3Washington34.1% ±1.629.4% ±1.59.8%38.8%
4California34.0% ±0.728.4% ±0.710.3%35.2%
5Texas33.5% ±0.728.4% ±0.810.0%33.3%
6Colorado33.5% ±1.729.3% ±1.69.9%31.6%
7Tennessee32.7% ±2.228.2% ±2.08.2%36.6%
8Iowa32.7% ±2.227.9% ±2.29.7%30.5%
9Nebraska32.6% ±3.128.7% ±3.011.3%45.2%
10Minnesota32.2% ±1.628.1% ±1.58.0%32.3%
11Arizona32.0% ±1.527.1% ±1.59.2%26.4%
12New Hampshire31.9% ±3.428.3% ±3.3S34.0%
13Florida31.9% ±0.926.5% ±0.89.6%35.6%
14Vermont31.9% ±3.928.7% ±3.7S38.6%
15Delaware31.8% ±4.027.3% ±3.5S39.3%
16Kansas31.4% ±2.227.4% ±2.09.0%34.9%
17Maine31.2% ±3.725.4% ±3.49.2%33.5%
18New Jersey31.2% ±1.525.9% ±1.58.4%33.8%
19Georgia30.8% ±1.526.1% ±1.58.8%31.3%
20Maryland30.8% ±2.026.6% ±1.99.0%35.0%
21Illinois30.7% ±1.426.3% ±1.48.8%35.3%
22North Carolina30.2% ±1.425.8% ±1.39.0%36.0%
23Massachusetts30.2% ±1.725.1% ±1.68.1%35.0%
24Nevada30.1% ±2.125.8% ±2.08.4%30.3%
25South Dakota29.9% ±3.425.8% ±3.4S31.2%
26Pennsylvania29.8% ±1.325.1% ±1.38.4%33.3%
27Hawaii29.7% ±3.424.9% ±3.2S29.9%
28Indiana29.6% ±2.125.2% ±2.08.8%29.9%
29Kentucky29.1% ±2.325.9% ±2.27.2%32.8%
30Ohio29.0% ±1.225.0% ±1.27.8%32.3%
31Virginia28.9% ±1.424.1% ±1.48.7%34.3%
32Idaho28.9% ±3.324.4% ±2.97.9%34.0%
33Montana28.7% ±3.124.4% ±2.8S30.6%
34Missouri28.5% ±1.925.3% ±1.87.3%29.4%
35Arkansas28.5% ±2.824.4% ±2.59.1%34.8%
36New York28.4% ±1.123.8% ±1.07.9%31.5%
37Connecticut27.8% ±2.124.0% ±1.78.0%30.4%
38Wisconsin27.8% ±1.923.5% ±1.98.5%28.8%
39Michigan27.8% ±1.423.8% ±1.38.4%32.7%
40New Mexico27.5% ±3.025.3% ±2.9S29.7%
41Rhode Island27.5% ±4.023.9% ±3.7S29.1%
42Alabama27.5% ±2.024.2% ±1.86.3%25.4%
43West Virginia27.1% ±4.022.9% ±3.7S24.9%
44North Dakota27.1% ±3.622.2% ±3.5S24.1%
45South Carolina26.9% ±1.923.4% ±1.76.5%27.7%
46Louisiana26.6% ±2.022.8% ±1.77.0%24.8%
47Oklahoma26.6% ±1.822.4% ±1.88.5%25.6%
48Wyoming26.2% ±3.323.3% ±3.7S48.4%
49Alaska25.8% ±4.523.1% ±4.4S28.5%
50Mississippi24.5% ±2.921.1% ±2.9S25.9%
51District of Columbia22.9% ±4.322.1% ±4.8S19.9%

Share of employer businesses. ± = approximate 90% margin of error. S = suppressed by Census (too few responses or quality concerns), not zero. Any negative impact = 100% minus the share answering “Not applicable.” Businesses could choose more than one impact. Latest period: collected September 21–October 4, 2026.

Dot chart of the share of businesses reporting negative impacts from interest rates by state, 6-period average, with margins of error. Utah 35.4%; U.S. 31.0%; District of Columbia 22.9%.
Share of businesses reporting any negative impact from interest rates, by state, with approximate 90% margins of error. Source: Census BTOS.

By industry

Census publishes this question for broad industry sectors, not the six detailed industries in the loan analysis. Over the same 6 periods, accommodation and food services had the highest share reporting harm (35.7%) among the sectors below, and health care and social assistance the lowest (28.7%).

Sector (NAICS)Any negative impact, 6-period avg.Decreased profitability
Accommodation and food services (incl. food trucks)35.7% ±0.830.2%
Retail trade35.5% ±0.630.8%
Construction (incl. plumbing and HVAC)33.6% ±0.928.8%
Other services (incl. salons, repair)30.5% ±0.925.6%
Administrative and support (incl. cleaning, landscaping)29.4% ±1.124.8%
Health care and social assistance (incl. child care)28.7% ±0.724.2%

What this means if you are starting a business

Use the payment scenarios to compare the total cost and timing of an actual borrowing offer. Our business loan comparison explains the main financing types, with separate routes for SBA 7(a) loans and business credit lines.

About two-thirds of businesses say rates have not hurt them, and the main complaint among the rest is thinner profits, not missed payments. If you plan to borrow, ask your lender whether the rate is fixed or variable, what it is tied to (usually prime) and how often it can change. Then rerun the payment calculator above at a rate a point or two higher than your quote. If that payment would strain your budget, borrow less, keep more cash in reserve or look at a fixed-rate option. Rates are only one cost pressure: see how many businesses are paying higher prices in each state.

Source and method for this section: U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), National.xlsx, State.xlsx and Sector.xlsx, question 13: “In the last six months, in what ways did changes to interest rates negatively impact this business?” Answer choices: decreased profitability, inability to service debt, inability to refinance existing loans, inability to invest in this business, not applicable. Latest period 202620 (collected September 21–October 4, 2026; published October 8, 2026). State and sector figures average periods 202615–202620; the approximate 90% margin of error uses the Census standard errors, assuming the two-week samples are independent. BTOS is an experimental data product covering employer businesses; estimates are weighted shares of responding businesses. Prime rate: FRED series DPRIME (Federal Reserve H.15), through October 2, 2026. Data refreshed October 8, 2026.

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Download the data and charts

Suggested citation: StartBusinessByState.com — Rate Hikes and Small-Business Loans: State & Industry Data. https://startbusinessbystate.com/small-business-rate-hike-impact/. Please credit and link to this page when using our compilation or analysis, and retain the original-source credits and applicable reuse terms.

Citation: StartBusinessByState.com, “Rate Hikes and Small-Business Loans: State & Industry Data,” September 18, 2026. Analysis of SBA 7(a) FY2021–FY2025 approvals, file as of June 30, 2026. When citing a payment amount, include the assumed rate change and term. Charts may be reused with attribution and a link to this page; the downloadable files contain aggregate results, not borrower names or addresses.

Related operating-cost research (different shock): fuel-cost shock for mobile service businesses — EIA gasoline/diesel observations and labeled fleet scenarios, not loan payment models.

Sources and methodology

Source: the SBA 7(a)/504 FOIA dataset and data dictionary. We downloaded the 7(a) FY2020–present file as of June 30, 2026 and selected FY2021–FY2025 approvals. SBA fiscal years run October through September. FY2026 is incomplete in this extract and excluded. No 504 records are included.

Owner survey section: Census Business Trends and Outlook Survey, question 13 (see the section note).

Scope: janitorial services 561720; landscaping 561730; plumbing/heating/air-conditioning contractors 238220; child day care 624410; barber shops/beauty salons/nail salons 812111, 812112 and 812113; mobile food services 722330. These six groups are not a representative sample of every small business. Geography uses ProjectState, not lender address.

Filtering: the file contains 24,765 approvals matching the fiscal-year and industry selections. We exclude 3,107 cancelled approvals and then 110 records outside the 50-state/DC geography, leaving 21,548. The total reconciles with our earlier industry/lender study. Approved amounts are nominal dollars from the approval years; medians are not inflation-adjusted or current outstanding principal.

Rate classification: FixedorVariableInterestInd records V for variable and F for fixed. The sample has 17,618 V records, 3,929 F records and one unclassified record. Variable share is V divided by all in-scope approvals; the unknown stays in the denominator and is separately identified in downloads. These are loan-count shares, not shares of dollars or unique firms.

Payment model: monthly payment = P × r ÷ [1 − (1+r)−n], where P is principal, r is annual rate divided by 12 in decimal form and n is the number of monthly payments. At a zero rate, payment=P/n. Published comparisons use 120 payments and 10% versus 10.25%. Differences are calculated before rounding displayed payments; fees, insurance, taxes and lender-specific terms are excluded.

Limits: the data does not establish current exposure, payment-reset dates, credit availability, lender quotes or financial distress. No claim is made that differences between state samples are statistically significant. Small cells below 30 approvals are withheld from the interactive comparison; the state chart requires 100. Related Fed policy source is separate from the historical SBA data and the hypothetical repayment model.

Common questions

How much does a quarter-point increase add to a $100,000 business loan?

At 10% versus 10.25% with 120 equal monthly payments, the difference is $13.88 per month. Different rates, balances, terms and loan structures produce different results.

Which industry had the highest variable-rate share?

Janitorial/cleaning services, at 88.5% of the in-scope SBA 7(a) approvals. This comparison covers six selected industry groups and FY2021–FY2025 approvals, not all businesses or current loans.

Does a Fed increase raise every SBA loan payment?

No. The fixed or variable structure, contractual benchmark and reset rules matter. The calculator illustrates a change in a loan’s own rate; it does not predict an automatic reset.

How many small businesses say interest rates are hurting them?

In the Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey collected September 21–October 4, 2026, 33.2% of U.S. employer businesses said changes in interest rates had a negative impact in the last six months. 28.5% said rates decreased their profitability, and 4.5% said they could not service their debt.

Which states have the most businesses hurt by interest rates?

Averaging the last 6 two-week survey periods, Utah (35.4%), Oregon (34.6%) and Washington (34.1%) had the highest shares of employer businesses reporting a negative impact. The U.S. average was 31.0%. State estimates have wide margins of error.